1.3.1 The company uses risk models for all the risk domains identified
and the risk models are published (with potentially dangerous
information redacted) (40%) 10%
There is no description of risk modelling or engaging in risk models. However, these could be easily implemented. For instance, when they mention that “The CBRN Capability Threshold focuses on the potential that a frontier model may provide actors material “uplift” in excess of other publicly available research or existing tools, such as internet search”, risk modeling should be provided for how upllift to these actors may be provided using a step by step causal pathway, and what the precise threat scenarios deriving from this causal pathway is. These should then be published.
They do mention that they engage in “collaboration on threat modeling and updated Critical Capability Thresholds” to “account for evolving (and potentially new) threats.” However, this seems to refer more to what threat scenarios to consider, than step by step causal pathways to map out.
Quotes:
“CBRN Weapons Proliferation focuses on the risk that a model may be able to guide malicious actors in developing and deploying CBRN weapons. The CBRN Capability Threshold focuses on the potential that a frontier model may provide actors material “uplift” in excess of other publicly available research or existing tools, such as internet search.” (p. 2)
“Offensive Cyber Operations focuses on risks that would arise from the use of a model by malicious actors to compromise digital systems with the intent to cause harm. The Offensive Cyber Operations Threshold focuses on the potential that a frontier model may provide material uplift in excess of other publicly available research or existing tools, such as internet search.” (p. 2)
“Automating AI R&D processes could accelerate discovery and development of AI capabilities that will be critical for solving global challenges. However, Automated AI R&D could also accelerate the development of models that pose enhanced CBRN, Offensive Cybersecurity, or other severe risks.” (p. 2)
“Collaboration on threat modeling and updated Critical Capability Thresholds: Amazon is committed to partnering with governments, domain experts, and industry peers to continuously improve Amazon’s awareness of the threat environment and ensure that our Critical Capability Thresholds and evaluation processes account for evolving (and potentially new) threats.” (p. 4)
1.3.2 Risk modeling methodology (40%) 4%
1.3.2.1 Methodology precisely defined (70%) 0%
There is no methodology for risk modeling defined.
Quotes:
No relevant quotes found.
1.3.2.2 Mechanism to incorporate red teaming findings (15%) 0%
There is some reference to identifying mitigations through open-ended red teaming which “[surface] early insights”, however there is no reference to then incorporate these early insights of risk into risk modelling.
Quotes:
“Learning from our red teaming network: We continue to build our strong network of internal and external red teamers including red teamers with deep subject matter expertise in risks related to critical capabilities. These experts are critical in surfacing early insights into emerging critical capabilities and help us identify and implement appropriate mitigations.” (p. 4)
1.3.2.3 Prioritization of severe and probable risks (15%) 25%
There is an implicit prioritization of severe harms, but not the most probable harms. There is no indication that risk models are given severity/probability scores (qualitative or quantitative).
Quotes:
“This Framework outlines the protocols we will follow to ensure that frontier models developed by Amazon do not expose critical capabilities that have the potential to create severe risks.” (p. 1)
“This Framework focuses on severe risks that are unique to frontier AI models as they scale in size and capability and which require specialized evaluation methods and safeguards.” (p. 1)
1.3.3 Third party validation of risk models (20%) 25%
Amazon indicates a commitment to “partnering” with thrid parties to give input into “threat modelling”, in order to “improve Amazon’s awareness of the threat environment.” To improve, more detail is required on how third parties not only give input but validate risk models, and ideally name experts involved.
Quotes:
“Collaboration on threat modeling and updated Critical Capability Thresholds: Amazon is committed to partnering with governments, domain experts, and industry peers to continuously improve Amazon’s awareness of the threat environment and ensure that our Critical Capability Thresholds and evaluation processes account for evolving (and potentially new) threats.” (p. 4)